Posts Tagged ‘deflation’

Americans are Spending More (yay!)… But Not Necessarily Getting More (boo)

Saturday, April 2nd, 2011

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(photo credit:  Eggybird)

Every month for the past eight months, dutiful Americans have been pulling out their wallets and handing their money to other Americans in exchange for goods and services. In other words, they’ve been lubricating the wheels of our creaky economic machine.

Why? Well, part of it is that they’re more confident now that the recession is over and there are real signs of a recovery. But the other, more significant part is that the cost of living increased. That’s right: inflation.

Food and gas prices went up, which means that more of Joe American’s dollars went to feeding his family and driving to work than to buying a new television or a trampoline for the kids.

Ben Bernanke from the Fed says that nobody should be worrying about out-of-control inflation – food and gas prices will come down again. But if he’s wrong, it’s the Fed’s job to take action to make sure Joe still has a few dollars left to pay for his morning coffee after feeding the kids and driving to work.

And by the way… while inflation sounds like a bad thing, it’s really not as bad as its evil twin, deflation.

Have you been spending more money since last summer? Why?

Well That Didn’t Work; Japan Tries Something Else

Monday, August 30th, 2010

Japan’s been in an economic bind for years, but now they’re faced with an increasingly expensive currency as well. What’s a prime minister to do?

  • With the yen at a 15-year high and deflation ironically still going strong, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has proposed a stimulus plan designed to dig his country out of its economic hole. An expensive yen means it’s more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Japan’s exported goods.
  • Part of the plan involves lending more money to the banks at a very low rate. The idea is to keep the yen’s value low and to encourage more consumer lending – similar to recent U.S. stimulus efforts.
  • Some experts say Kan’s proposal doesn’t go far enough to address the country’s seriously messed up financial situation, and some are even saying this is a purely political move designed to make Kan look good.

Facts & Figures

  • Japan’s main interest rate is currently 0.1%
  • Part of the Japanese stimulus package includes a 900 billion yen government injection (just under $11 billion) into the economy
  • Stimulus money will be used to subsidize green appliances and homes, fund career counseling and internships, and keep domestic companies from outsourcing.

Best Quote

“There seems to be a sense of fatalism. The B.O.J. continues to play the same old game of making incremental, but ultimately meaningless, policy changes in response to political pressure. The government talks of the need for fiscal reconstruction, but then tries to construct an economic stimulus package with tiny fiscal measures and minor, uncoordinated structural reforms.” – Richard Jerram, Economist for Japan at Macquarie, a global investment bank

Plunging Prices Follow The Crash

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Times are good for bargain-hunters, but a price-slashing culture could be disastrous for retailers and their employees.

  • Prices around the country are dropping in a retail campaign to win back buyers who put their wallets away when the stock market crashed and thriftiness became the norm.
  • Shoppers are staying away primarily because they’re broke, but also because the consumer culture has changed since 2007: conspicuous consumption just isn’t as okay as it used to be.
  • Because consumers are now holding out for the discounts they know desperate retailers will offer, companies are forced to cut prices even as their profit margins shrink. Lower prices mean lower profits, which often translates to hiring freezes and layoffs. This is the same cycle that affects the Japanese economy, which has been battling deflation for decades.

Facts & Figures

  • 70% of the U.S. economy is made up of consumer spending, but following the stock market crash in 2008, total household wealth decreased by 11% in less than six months.
  • On average, prices have decreased by about 20% in the hotel industry and more than 30% in the real estate market.
  • The Consumer Price Index dropped 1.5% between September 2008 and September 2009 – the largest decrease since 1950.

Best Quote

“This is the new normal. We aren’t going back.” – Donald Keprta, President of Dominick’s (a supermarket chain in the Midwest)

Deflation is…

Friday, May 15th, 2009

Deflation occurs when an entire economy of people stop buying as much as they once did, forcing the price of goods to drop. In numbers, an economy enters a state of deflation once the inflation rate (normally 3%) drops below zero.

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What’s The Worst-Case Scenario For The Financial Crisis?

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

It could just start with “Sale” signs at your favorite stores. Unfortunately, Spain is getting a glimpse…

  • Several European nations – most notably Spain – are facing deflation in the wake of the global financial crisis.
  • As consumer demand continues to drop, Spanish merchants are cutting prices, salaries, and employees just to keep afloat.
  • Because Spain’s currency (the Euro) is now governed by the European Union, there is very little the Spanish government can do to control potential deflation (such as slash interest rates or devalue the national currency).

Facts & Figures

  • Spain’s unemployment rate is currently 15.5% and could reach 20% in the near future. Among workers under 25, the rate rises to 31.8%.  In comparison, the unemployment rate in the US is under 9%.
  • La Casa de la Caridad (Valencia’s main soup kitchen) expects to serve 12,000 meals to needy residents in April – three times as many as last year.
  • Since last year, wholesale prices in Japan dropped 2.2% and 8% in Germany; in the U.S., the Consumer Price Index dropped for the first time since 1955.

Best Quote

“Alarm bells are going off.  Economies can recover from deceleration, but it’s harder to recover from a deflationary situation. This could be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy.” – Lorenzo Amor, President of the Association of Autonomous Workers

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