How the Stock Market Reacts to a Natural Disaster

March 18th, 2011


(photo credit: ehnmark)

After so much media coverage devoted to videos of water swallowing up cities, we were interested to see this Reuters article from Monday about the financial implications of Japan’s bad luck.

The stock market is operating under very rare conditions, and some of the news was really surprising. For example, this is the worst hit the market has taken in two years… but it’s the worst natural disaster the country has ever seen. Why didn’t the markets totally crash?

As a matter of fact, some stocks and sectors were actually doing very well on Monday. Here are some interesting facts from the report:

  • - The construction industry was booming, probably because demand for rebuilding will soon be enormous.
  • - Stock in the company that owns one of the nuclear power plants in danger of meltdown – Tokyo Electric Power – dropped 24% almost immediately.
  • - The technology sector, once one of Japan’s strongest, took a nosedive.
  • - Investors were selling off their long-term bonds* (20 years or more), which means that they’re not confident Japan will be able to repay their bond debts in the future.
  • - The earthquake happened on Friday. By Monday, the Bank of Japan was ready to announce that it would inject 15 trillion yen (about $187 billion) into the economy to support it during the crisis. (Kind of like the U.S. Treasury has been doing here to keep the economy afloat during the recession.)
  • - This vote of confidence inspired investors to purchase more short-term bonds (10 years or less).

This just goes to show you that changes in the stock market are all about what investors predict. These predictions can be rational or irrational, but the speculation never ends – no matter what happens.

A bond is a kind of debt sold by governments and corporations to raise money. Basically, when you buy a bond, you’re buying the seller’s promise to pay you back (usually with a fixed interest rate) on a predetermined date.

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